A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
